This series answers numerous fantasy-centric questions following the Week 14 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It uses advanced metrics, analytics, game tape reviews, statistical trends, and myriad other elements. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

The EPA metrics detailed below are per TruMedia. Other advanced metrics outside of my unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in full PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

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For this last edition of my weekly fantasy football series, I thought it might be helpful to offer my primary advice for how to navigate the fantasy playoffs, and then provide some personnel insights for Weeks 15-17.

When asked about the difference between putting together a starting lineup for a regular season matchup versus a playoff matchup, my answer is this: during the regular season you should almost always play the percentages, as there are 14 weeks for those percentages to pan out and if you play them consistently, they will usually pay dividends in the form of a playoff berth.

During the playoffs, it’s time to swing for the fences as often as possible — because, generally speaking, there are no bad teams in the fantasy playoffs. This means it’s tough to win without hitting a high scoring ceiling somewhere, which is why fantasy managers need to be on the lookout for as many quality matchups as they can find in Weeks 15-17.

To assist with this, I have reviewed my rest of season matchup charts to identify various players and teams with a high volume of green-rated matchups during the fantasy playoffs (including some D/ST suggestions).

Before doing so, keep in mind that favorable matchups can change due to a variety of factors, with the most common one being injuries.

In this area, it’s worth noting that it can be very difficult even for top professional teams to keep defensive secondaries stocked with quality backup pass coverage defenders, so it’s a good idea keep an eye on the injury reports for any starting cornerbacks or safeties (including nickel or big nickel starters) who will be out for a given matchup and adjust your start-sit decisions accordingly.

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The same can be said for offensive line injuries, as these can serve to rule out players if too many of these physical ailments stack up at any given time. This can also assist in choosing D/ST starters in those leagues with that player position.

With these preliminaries out of the way, let’s get into some playoff matchup reviews and how you might be able to use them in pursuit of a fantasy championship. These sections will concentrate on players who have at least two favorable matchups over the next three weeks.

Quarterbacks

Here are teams that have either two or three remaining matchups with a high percentage of generating a shootout (a key element in quarterbacks posting vaulted point totals).

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It’s comforting to know that Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa are apt to deliver strong fantasy scoring performances during the playoffs, but the real value here is finding out that Kyler Murray or Sam Howell might end up as high value plays on multiple occasions. Murray and Howell are both still available in just under 30 percent of leagues, so if they are available in yours and your team needs a quality backup, be sure to try to roster them this week.

Fantasy managers in very deep leagues could also take a flyer on Tommy DeVito or Will Levis given the favorable matchup volume here.

Wide receivers/tight ends

Here are the wide receivers or tight ends who have two or three green-rated coverage matchups.

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Waller is about ready to return from his stint on injured reserve, which means that he should be rostered in any of the just over 36 percent of leagues where he is available as a free agent. Reynolds and Westbrook-Ikhine really aren’t viable selections in leagues with short benches, but fantasy managers in leagues with anything close to a large bench should consider rostering them, with Reynolds getting priority since he is on a much better offense and scored a touchdown in Week 14.

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This is an expansive list of candidates, many of whom are already rostered in nearly all leagues and are weekly start candidates, but players like Romeo Doubs or Noah Brown (if C.J. Stroud’s concussion doesn’t keep him out for a time) could be high on the playoff roster stash list.

It’s also good to know that players like Zay Flowers, who has been among the most frustrating start-sit candidates for much of this season, have favorable matchups that could make them strong flex plays at the very least.

Running backs

Here are the teams that have two or three green-rated rush defense matchups.

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D’Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren, and Najee Harris have all put up numbers of late that will have fantasy managers considering benching them for other players, but with three favorable rest of season matchups, it’s likely that in most cases each member of this trio should be put into lineups whenever possible.

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Bijan Robinson has been able post strong fantasy point totals despite the Atlanta offensive line getting obliterated by injuries and adding favorable matchups will only contribute more to his upside potential.

The green-rated rush defense matchups also help quarterbacks with rush-centric profiles, which means that Justin Fields, who tallied 24.72 points against Detroit in Week 14, should be in most lineups for the rest of the year.

The inclusion of the Raiders, Vikings, and Patriots should make fantasy managers with Josh Jacobs, Ty Chandler (if Alexander Mattison’s ankle injury keeps him out), Rhamondre Stevenson or Ezekiel Elliott more comfortable putting those players into playoff lineups.

D/ST

For this area, it’s good to remember that pass rushing (a category that includes sacks and the associated elements that occur with them) accounts for roughly half of all D/ST fantasy points.

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Using that barometer, it’s helpful to know which teams have green-rated pass blocking matchups down the stretch. Here are six teams with two matchups of that caliber.

Another way to review D/ST value is to look at how many weak offenses are on the upcoming schedule. Here is that list.

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With Houston showing up on both lists, it looks like this may be the best prospect on the board. The Texans have posted 7+ fantasy points on seven occasions and have the path to do so at least twice more in the postseason. Houston’s D/ST may be dropped in many leagues this week after putting up only five points in what looked to be a favorable matchup against the Jets in Week 14, so this could be a quality pickup in many leagues.

Kansas City and Seattle weigh in just under Houston, with the Seahawks likely being the more useful.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 15: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Antonio Gibson, Zay Flowers and more

(Top photo: Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

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